According to the Arizona Regional Multiple Listing Service, transaction volumes have dropped significantly since last year, with sales down more than 32% from September 2021. This volume is unlikely to rebound rapidly given the present trend in contract signings. Instead, volumes are anticipated to fall even further in the short term. New supply is still well below usual for this time of year, but it is beginning to rise slightly.
Using a contract Signings are becoming more infrequent, and inventory is beginning to rise again. Despite only a 7.4% increase in September. Looking ahead to October, the ARMLS Pending Price Index is projecting a median sales price of $439,000. If October's median sales price projection is correct, we will see the median sales price go up 4.90% year over year to $438,500 but down 7.68% from May’s record high of $475,000.
- ARMLS reported 6,328 home closings in September of this year.
- Sales are up +3.1% month-over-month.
- The year-over-year comparison is down -29.2%.
- Months supply of inventory for August was 3.56 with September at 3.57.
- The average sales price is up 7.4% year-over-year to $528,800.
- The median sales price is up 7.1% year-over-year to $439K.
It would take about fourteen weeks (3.57 months) for the current inventory of homes on the Phoenix housing market to sell given the current sales pace. It refers to the number of months it would take for the current inventory of homes on the market to sell given the current sales pace. Historically, six months of supply is associated with moderate price appreciation, and a lower level of months’ supply tends to push prices up more rapidly. Given the increase in the supply of homes, it is expected to become well be a balanced market by September. Source ARMLS.
Are House Prices Going Down in Phoenix?
According to Redfin, the Phoenix housing market is very competitive, and the prices are increasing compared to last year.
- In September 2022, Phoenix home prices were up 8.9% compared to last year, selling for a median price of $430,000.
- On average, homes in Phoenix sell after 43 days on the market compared to 26 days last year.
- There were 1,643 homes sold in September this year, down from 2,445 last year.
- 17.3% of homes were sold above their original asking prices, which is 32.2% less when compared to last year.
- About 56.6% of the listed homes were sold with price drops.
- The sale-to-list-price ratio was 97.5%.
- The average homes sell for about 2% below the list price and go under contract in around 40 days.
- Hot listings can sell for around the list price and go pending in around just 19 days.
Phoenix is the seat of Maricopa County and the largest city in the state. In September 2022, the median list price of homes in Maricopa County was $502K, trending up 10.3% year-over-year (source: Realtor.com). The median listing price per square foot was $279. The median sale price was $465K. It is a seller's market with a Sale-to-List Price Ratio of 98.78%. There's still more demand for homes than there is supply, and it's what we see in most housing markets today. Source: Redfin.
- Scottsdale has a median listing price of $895K, making it the most expensive city in Maricopa County.
- Sun City is the most affordable city, with a median listing price of $325.5K.
- Phoenix City has a median listing price of $470K, trending up 12% year-over-year.
- The median home sold price in Phoenix is $430K.
- Arcadia has a median listing price of $1.5M, making it the most expensive neighborhood in Phoenix.
- Central City South is the most affordable neighborhood in Phoenix, with a median listing price of $344.4K.
